The Democratic Alliance (DA) is projected to receive 33.3% of the proportional representation (PR) vote in the City of Johannesburg, according to the latest election predictions released by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in partnership with the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC).
The predictions, updated at 3:13pm on Thursday, 5 November, indicate that no political party is currently projected to secure an outright majority of the PR vote, raising questions about the eventual composition of the Johannesburg City Council and the possibility of further coalition negotiations.
According to the CSIR’s statistical model, the African National Congress (ANC) is projected to receive 19.4%, followed by ActionSA at 16.2%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 6.4% and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party) at 4.9%.
The projections come as 21.5% of Johannesburg’s voting districts have been declared, with the municipality recording actual turnout of 52.1%, compared with the CSIR’s predicted turnout of 51.9%.
Johannesburg has approximately 2.42 million registered voters, making it one of the country’s most politically significant municipalities.
While the DA is currently receiving 37.2% of valid PR votes counted, the CSIR projects its final share could be lower, at 33.3%, once outstanding voting districts have reported.
The ANC’s current support stands at 17.1%, compared with its projected final share of 19.4%, suggesting that its percentage could increase as additional results are incorporated into the model.
ActionSA’s actual support stands at 16.5%, closely aligned with the CSIR’s projection of 16.2%.
The EFF is currently recording 6.4%, matching its projected final share, while the MK Party has received 4.2% of votes counted against a projected 4.9%.
The difference between the actual count and projected results illustrates how early voting patterns can change as outstanding voting districts report.
The CSIR uses a statistical model that analyses declared election results and historical voting patterns to estimate the likely final distribution of votes. The predictions are updated as additional results become available.
Unlike conventional opinion polls, the model draws on actual votes already counted rather than surveys of voter intentions.
However, the CSIR cautions that its predictions are estimates based on available data and underlying assumptions. They are not official election results, and the eventual outcome may differ.
The projected figures also point to the possibility of continued political fragmentation in Johannesburg, where several parties are expected to hold representation in the municipal council.
If no party secures an outright majority of council seats, negotiations between political parties may again become necessary to establish a governing administration.
Importantly, the CSIR’s PR vote projections do not constitute a final allocation of council seats. The eventual council composition will depend on both ward election outcomes and proportional representation calculations.
Johannesburg’s next municipal administration will inherit significant governance and service delivery challenges, including water shortages, electricity interruptions, deteriorating roads, sanitation problems, housing pressures and concerns about municipal accountability.
The city’s political leadership will also face questions about financial sustainability, infrastructure maintenance and the effectiveness of municipal entities responsible for delivering essential services.
The election outcome will therefore carry implications beyond party representation, particularly in determining whether the next council can establish stable leadership and implement long-term programmes to address the city’s infrastructure and service delivery needs.
While the election predictions provide an early indication of the municipality’s political direction, residents will also be watching the outcomes of individual ward contests to determine who will represent their communities over the next five years.
Individual ward victories are determined through ward ballots and should not be confused with the CSIR’s citywide PR projections.
The final distribution of seats will determine the political balance in the City of Johannesburg Council and whether a single party or a coalition of parties will be responsible for governing the municipality.
For residents, attention will ultimately shift from election percentages to the ability of the next administration to provide political stability, strengthen accountability and improve the delivery of essential services.
As vote counting continues, the IEC remains responsible for verifying and declaring the official results, while the CSIR’s predictions provide an independent statistical indication of how the final vote could develop.
Globe Post will continue monitoring the projections and confirmed election results as Johannesburg’s political landscape takes shape.
Source: CSIR/SABC Election Predictions Dashboard — https://elections.sabcnews.com/election-results/#results-predictions
Editor’s note: All figures are based on the CSIR/SABC Johannesburg metropolitan prediction dashboard, last updated on 5 November 2026 at 15:13:37, with 21.5% of voting districts declared. Projections are statistical estimates, not official IEC election results, and may change as counting progresses.
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